By Jonathan Baker It’s a vicious cycle: The more unsure the future is, the harder it is to stop imagining possible outcomes. This was never truer than the news of the current economy. Regarding tariffs, how can chief marketing officers (CMOs) be prepared to understand the consumer mindset? Insights from Gartner, Inc. Earlier this week, Media Post published a truncated “Marketing Daily” interview with Kate Muhl, vice president and analyst at research and advisory firm Gartner, Inc. This interview covered concerns and attitudes of American consumers over the impact of the impending placement of tariffs. These concerns a part of a study by Gartner to serve as a reference for CMOs to turn to for the navigating upcoming changes to the economy. Among the greatest takeaways: 1. A Difference Ms. Muhl clarified that there is a difference between economic issues regarding inflation and those related to either a recession or a disruption driven by trade policy. Understanding this difference in fact served as Gartner’s motivation to conduct this study. Then, there is another type of difference, which is outlook… 2. A Divide in Consumer Outlook Perhaps the most noteworthy result of this study was the difference—or gap—in an overall sense of anxiety over the economy in contrast to individual optimism. Yes, consumers—collectively—are worried about what lies ahead and what the economic future will hold. From an individual standpoint, however, two-thirds of consumers apparently feel safe in being able to afford necessities, while half have confidence about purchasing non-essentials. Herein lies the dilemma for CMOs… 3. How to Predict Behavior? The article posts a quote that summarizes the dichotomy in attitude described above: “My life is fine, but the world is a mess.” Ms. Muhl points out that this unofficial mantra indicated a pattern observed since 2020 (when, interestingly or ironically the COVID-19 pandemic dominated the world). Caution and conservative spending are on the minds of many consumers… 4. Recessionary Behavior Whether consumers feel confidence or concern, many are practicing what Ms. Muhl calls “recessionary behavior.” Earnestly paying off debt, stocking more money into savings accounts, and giving up certain luxuries are examples of this recessionary behavior. These practices may explain why some consumers have a degree of confidence. It is proof they are preparing for the future. Even then, however, there is the risk of not being able to make certain purchases, regardless of being able to afford them. 5. Product Shortages In what Ms. Muhl calls a “bigger emotional risk,” availability of desired products is the final and greater reality in this era of tariffs. Should a product shortage happen—particularly for sought-after gift items during the holiday shopping season—the “tariff reality” will be sobering. Addressing product shortages is difficult, and as of now, there are no definite answers. Regarding the other four findings, there are two tactics CMOs should pursue: Consistent brand messaging and price stability. Consistency in Brand Messaging While a refresh may be exciting and perhaps beneficial to a brand, now is not the time to experiment. As noted, there is underlying uncertainty throughout the nation. Maintaining brand consistency has therefore never been more important. On a subconscious level, the brand message consumers were familiar with before news of tariffs will provide them with a sense of comfort. Whether a brand message prioritizes value, quality, reliability, or heritage, CMOs must maintain—and intensify—consistent brand messaging. Price Stability The capability to maintain prices is easier said than done, particularly with the impact of tariffs on purchases. Should CMOs manage to accomplish price stability, transactions between brands and consumers will be less difficult. Citing initiatives taken by Keen and Hyundai, Ms. Muhl suggests that even “short-term no-hike” pledges—where consumers are promised that a brand will not increase pricing within a specified time frame—can help strengthen buying and selling. The EGC Group is staying in touch with the latest developments in the economy. If you have questions or would like to learn more about how our services can help, contact us today.
